Robustez de la permanencia estudiantil frente al riesgo académico temprano: un marco de escenarios
Student Persistence Robustness to Early Academic Risk: A Scenario-Based FrameworkBarra lateral del artículo
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El objetivo es proponer y demostrar un marco para evaluar la robustez de la permanencia estudiantil frente a factores tempranos de riesgo académico en educación superior. La investigación es de tipo aplicada y enfoque cualitativo, con diseño de estudio de caso instrumental; la técnica es la prueba de estrés basada en análisis de escenarios, operada por un panel de expertos, y los instrumentos son un lienzo de retención de nueve componentes, un mapa de robustez codificado por colores y tres índices propios de robustez. Los resultados de una aplicación ilustrativa indican que la integración académica y el compromiso con las metas son los componentes más frágiles, mientras que la reprobación de cursos puerta y la presión financiera sostenida son los factores más severos; el índice global de robustez resultó intermedio. Se concluye que el marco aporta un diagnóstico estructural que complementa a los sistemas de alerta temprana y orienta el rediseño de los servicios de apoyo institucional.
This study develops and validates a framework to assess the robustness of student persistence relative to early academic risk factors in higher education. Adopting an applied qualitative approach and an instrumental case study design, the research utilizes scenario-based stress testing conducted by an expert panel. The assessment incorporates a nine-component retention canvas, a color-coded robustness map, and three proprietary robustness indices. Findings from an illustrative application indicate that academic integration and goal commitment are the most vulnerable components, while gateway course failure and sustained financial pressure represent the most severe risk factors. The resulting global robustness index was intermediate. Ultimately, the framework provides a structural diagnosis that complements existing early warning systems and informs the strategic redesign of institutional support services.
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